Trattativa Renault-Fca

[gianmy86]

21 minuti fa, Adan67 scrive:

Che ne pensate?

?

Deve ristrutturare la casa al mare...

[Davialfa]

4 ore fa, 4200blu scrive:

https://europe.autonews.com/automakers/fca-renault-deal-would-test-pledge-keep-all-plants-open

FCA-Renault deal would test pledge to keep all plants open

Elisabeth Behrmann, Tommaso Ebhardt and Tara Patel

Bloomberg

A promise by Fiat Chrysler Automobiles to deliver 5 billion euros ($5.6 billion) of savings in its merger with Renault without closing plants looks audacious to some analysts, given the Italian automaker's surplus capacity in Europe.

The pledge goes further still, however. Asked Thursday whether job cuts will be needed, Renault Chairman Jean-Dominique Senard -- who would run the combined company as chief executive officer -- said the deal "doesn't call for human sacrifice."

The Italian automaker has confounded experts before, under former CEO Sergio Marchionne. This time, there is good reason for skepticism. Despite years of belt-tightening, both Fiat and Renault have spare capacity close to home. Almost one-third of Fiat's global work force of 198,500 was based in Europe at the end of last year, even though the maker of Jeep SUVs and Ram trucks earns almost all its profit in North America.

Renault, which counts on Europe for more than half of sales, leans on its partnership with Nissan -- strained in the aftermath of the Carlos Ghosn affair -- to keep plants such as the Flins facility north of Paris busy. Making matters worse, demand in the region is sagging.

"I don't know if Fiat will regret their statement, as both companies have plants that are heavily under-utilized in France and Italy," said Kevin Kelly, a consultant at Frost & Sullivan who worked on Renault-Nissan's powertrain strategy until October. "As a merged organization, it becomes even more likely that some plants will have to shut."

 

 

 

Bloomberg

 

Fiat is already facing hard times in Europe. Its Italian car production fell in 2018 for the first time in five years, shrinking 10 percent to 668,000 units, according to the Fim Cisl labor union. About 15 percent of the 65,000 workers in Italy were subject to temporary layoffs, more than double the number in 2017.

The company has been moving its Italian factories aggressively away from smaller, mass-produced vehicles. Fiat dropped the Punto hatchback last year, leaving its Melfi plant to focus on the Fiat 500X crossover and the Jeep Renegade SUV. Its Pomigliano site near Naples is slated to make a new Alfa Romeo SUV, though a transfer of the popular Fiat Panda to a plant in Poland has been halted.

 

By piggybacking on Renault's product platforms, Fiat could return to making more small cars, the mainstream B segment it pared back under Marchionne. But for the no-cuts pledge to work, those new products -- and any electric entries -- will have to succeed.

"Only customers and future product line-up success will determine if Fiat and Renault can keep their existing production capacity in Europe," said Stefano Aversa, chairman for EMEA of the business advisory and turnaround firm AlixPartners. "The key decisions will be on the allocation of the new, jointly developed cars to existing plants."

 

 

 

 

Red flags

Any suggestion of capacity constraints or workforce reductions would be a red flag to Italy's populist government and the nation's labor organizations. Attempts to close plants in France would run afoul of powerful unions there, too. President Emmanuel Macron's government has already been shaken by the violent Yellow Vest protests over social inequality.

As Renault's most powerful shareholder, France has made the preservation of jobs and local factories a condition for a merger. The companies must guarantee "industrial" jobs in France and pledge "zero" site closures, French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire said Tuesday. Still, France's CFDT union said it saw jobs at risk.

The stakes are high in France, where unemployment is 8.7 percent and Renault is one of the biggest employers, with 48,600 staff. As well as guaranteeing jobs, a deal might call for Fiat models to be made at the Flins plant. The Nissan Micra is made there, but sales have been disappointing, according to a person familiar with the matter who declined to be identified because the information is not public.

In Italy, Deputy Premier Matteo Salvini has said he trusts the deal "will safeguard every job in this country."

That may be ambitious. According to Kelly of Frost & Sullivan, one carmaking facility in each country is likely to close, and potentially two in Italy.

Fiat's premium and luxury brands, such as Alfa Romeo and Maserati, are likely to benefit from Renault's strong commercial networks, said Roberto Di Maulo, head of the Fismic labor union. The Mirafiori plant in Turin could take on production of the fully electric 500 model with components provided by the French, he said.

"The combination of Fiat Chrysler and Renault is a good deal for Italy, even without expanding it to Nissan -- though with the Japanese on board, the benefits could increase further," Di Maulo said.

Fiat last year made 982,000 cars in European plants capable of producing more than double that number, according to LMC Automotive, a consultancy and research group. For Renault, including the Lada and Dacia brands, production was 2.63 million cars, compared with capacity of 3.76 million. As a rule of thumb, LMC reckons utilization rates of 70 percent to 75 percent are needed for profitable operation.

Job pledges to win over governments often do not withstand the test of time. General Electric this month said it plans to cut more than 1,000 positions at its beleaguered French power-equipment business, going back on a promise to create 1,000 net new jobs when it took over Alstom's energy operations in 2015.

And there are ways to pare employment without shutting down a plant. Mirafiori last year made about 30,000 cars, one-tenth the total in its glory days, after shifting to production of luxury Maserati SUVs.

"Closures will likely have to be made equally, with both sides agreeing to shut down one place in France and then the next one in Italy, for instance," said Frank Biller, an analyst at Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemberg. "It's not realistic to shut factories in Eastern Europe -- the problems are concentrated at the Fiat brand and it's out of the question there won't be job cuts."

Together, Fiat and Renault made about 8.7 million cars last year, which would put them third behind Volkswagen Group and Toyota. Combined with production from Renault's existing alliance with Nissan and Mitsubishi Motors, the total would be more than 15 million vehicles a year.

 

 

 

Bloomberg

 

Fiat is already facing hard times in Europe. Its Italian car production fell in 2018 for the first time in five years, shrinking 10 percent to 668,000 units, according to the Fim Cisl labor union. About 15 percent of the 65,000 workers in Italy were subject to temporary layoffs, more than double the number in 2017.

The company has been moving its Italian factories aggressively away from smaller, mass-produced vehicles. Fiat dropped the Punto hatchback last year, leaving its Melfi plant to focus on the Fiat 500X crossover and the Jeep Renegade SUV. Its Pomigliano site near Naples is slated to make a new Alfa Romeo SUV, though a transfer of the popular Fiat Panda to a plant in Poland has been halted.

 

By piggybacking on Renault's product platforms, Fiat could return to making more small cars, the mainstream B segment it pared back under Marchionne. But for the no-cuts pledge to work, those new products -- and any electric entries -- will have to succeed.

"Only customers and future product line-up success will determine if Fiat and Renault can keep their existing production capacity in Europe," said Stefano Aversa, chairman for EMEA of the business advisory and turnaround firm AlixPartners. "The key decisions will be on the allocation of the new, jointly developed cars to existing plants."

 

 

 

 

Red flags

Any suggestion of capacity constraints or workforce reductions would be a red flag to Italy's populist government and the nation's labor organizations. Attempts to close plants in France would run afoul of powerful unions there, too. President Emmanuel Macron's government has already been shaken by the violent Yellow Vest protests over social inequality.

As Renault's most powerful shareholder, France has made the preservation of jobs and local factories a condition for a merger. The companies must guarantee "industrial" jobs in France and pledge "zero" site closures, French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire said Tuesday. Still, France's CFDT union said it saw jobs at risk.

The stakes are high in France, where unemployment is 8.7 percent and Renault is one of the biggest employers, with 48,600 staff. As well as guaranteeing jobs, a deal might call for Fiat models to be made at the Flins plant. The Nissan Micra is made there, but sales have been disappointing, according to a person familiar with the matter who declined to be identified because the information is not public.

In Italy, Deputy Premier Matteo Salvini has said he trusts the deal "will safeguard every job in this country."

That may be ambitious. According to Kelly of Frost & Sullivan, one carmaking facility in each country is likely to close, and potentially two in Italy.

Fiat's premium and luxury brands, such as Alfa Romeo and Maserati, are likely to benefit from Renault's strong commercial networks, said Roberto Di Maulo, head of the Fismic labor union. The Mirafiori plant in Turin could take on production of the fully electric 500 model with components provided by the French, he said.

"The combination of Fiat Chrysler and Renault is a good deal for Italy, even without expanding it to Nissan -- though with the Japanese on board, the benefits could increase further," Di Maulo said.

Fiat last year made 982,000 cars in European plants capable of producing more than double that number, according to LMC Automotive, a consultancy and research group. For Renault, including the Lada and Dacia brands, production was 2.63 million cars, compared with capacity of 3.76 million. As a rule of thumb, LMC reckons utilization rates of 70 percent to 75 percent are needed for profitable operation.

Job pledges to win over governments often do not withstand the test of time. General Electric this month said it plans to cut more than 1,000 positions at its beleaguered French power-equipment business, going back on a promise to create 1,000 net new jobs when it took over Alstom's energy operations in 2015.

And there are ways to pare employment without shutting down a plant. Mirafiori last year made about 30,000 cars, one-tenth the total in its glory days, after shifting to production of luxury Maserati SUVs.

"Closures will likely have to be made equally, with both sides agreeing to shut down one place in France and then the next one in Italy, for instance," said Frank Biller, an analyst at Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemberg. "It's not realistic to shut factories in Eastern Europe -- the problems are concentrated at the Fiat brand and it's out of the question there won't be job cuts."

Together, Fiat and Renault made about 8.7 million cars last year, which would put them third behind Volkswagen Group and Toyota. Combined with production from Renault's existing alliance with Nissan and Mitsubishi Motors, the total would be more than 15 million vehicles a year.

 

 

Beh oddio, e' vero ceh gli impianti ITaliani sono decisamente sotto utilizzati, però è anche vero che la gamma in Emea è ridotta al minimo. Se con l'alleanza prevedono di fare magari qualche modello in più, spero mirino ad aumentare le quote di mercato, sopratutto per i brand italiani che sono quelli più lontano da loro potenziale.

2 ore fa, T a u r u s scrive:

Dal momento che Renault e la futura FCA-Renault avrà il 43,4% di Nissan, verso il diluito 7,5% di Nissan a FCA-Renault, e la futura FCA-Renault sarà un attore decisamente più grande di Nissan-Mitsubishi, una probabile fusione tra FCA-Renault e Nissan non sarà certamente paritetica come quella FCA e Renault. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Taurus è tornato dopo mesi e mesi di letargo... Questa fusione sembra scaldare gli animi.

[JackSEWing]

50 minuti fa, iDrive scrive:

Qualcuno ha fatto calcoli e come sono messe le cose sarebbe non 50/50 ma quasi 52/48 in favore di FCA via i dividendi straordinari per FCA.

 

ok, ma questo è un qualcosa che riguarda gli Elkann (a cui basta essere azionisti di maggioranza della società) mentre dall'altra parte c'è un soggetto istituzionale che ha già posto dei vincoli ben precisi riguardo all'occupazione sul suo suolo nazionale.

 

Se ci sarà da tagliare in EU, dove mai si taglierà?

 

E' una fettina molto scomoda quella in mano al governo francese, per quanto potrà essere diluita a livello percentuale sono comunque in posizione di forza per dettare condizioni nelle scelte strategiche

 

[Davialfa]

1 ora fa, JackSEWing scrive:

 

ok, ma questo è un qualcosa che riguarda gli Elkann (a cui basta essere azionisti di maggioranza della società) mentre dall'altra parte c'è un soggetto istituzionale che ha già posto dei vincoli ben precisi riguardo all'occupazione sul suo suolo nazionale.

 

Se ci sarà da tagliare in EU, dove mai si taglierà?

 

E' una fettina molto scomoda quella in mano al governo francese, per quanto potrà essere diluita a livello percentuale sono comunque in posizione di forza per dettare condizioni nelle scelte strategiche

 

 

Potrebbero magari tagliare in spagna...

[Nico87]

10 ore fa, JackSEWing scrive:

 

ok, ma questo è un qualcosa che riguarda gli Elkann (a cui basta essere azionisti di maggioranza della società) mentre dall'altra parte c'è un soggetto istituzionale che ha già posto dei vincoli ben precisi riguardo all'occupazione sul suo suolo nazionale. 

  

Se ci sarà da tagliare in EU, dove mai si taglierà?

 

E' una fettina molto scomoda quella in mano al governo francese, per quanto potrà essere diluita a livello percentuale sono comunque in posizione di forza per dettare condizioni nelle scelte strategiche 

  

 

Lo avevo già scritto nelle prime pagine. O si riesce a convincere il governo francese a uscire dalla newco in qualche modo, anche se dubito stra-enormemente lo farebbero, anche perchè andrebbe comunque liquidata (e non perchè non ha quote, la moral suasion del governo e sindacati francesi sarebbe inferiore...).

Oppure non resta che far entrare anche il governo italiano in quota paritetica a quello francese, se l'intenzione è andare a contrattare ad armi pari per quello che riguarda la parte "sociale" dell'operazione e del redistribuirne alla pari gli esuberi.

Li poi è da fare una botta di conti se conviene squicire soldi per entrare nella newco, oppure rimanerne fuori ed accettarne passivamente tutti i costi sociali che produrranno gli esuberi che ci rifileranno sul medio periodo.

Chiaramente essendo FCA in realtà un soggetto privato di diritto olandese, potrebbe tranquillamente non accettare l'intromissione statale che andrebbe a diluire la propria quota. Cosa che invece non avverrebbe per la controparte, avendo già la quota.

Fossi un lavoratore ancora abbastanza giovane di qualche stabilimento o centro R&D italiano, non dormirei tranquillo, per quanto ci siano rassicurazioni di circostanza da parte della proprietà.
Vedere caso Wirlpool di questi giorni.

 

Modificato 1 Giugno 2019 da Nico87

[SolidSnake]

9 ore fa, Davialfa scrive:

 

Potrebbero magari tagliare in spagna...

Ma FCA perché non può tagliare lo stabilimento in Serbia che non ha mai funzionato veramente? È stata un'operazione totalmente insensata e sfido chiunque a dimostrare il contrario.

[iDrive]

3 ore fa, Nico87 scrive:

Lo avevo già scritto nelle prime pagine. O si riesce a convincere il governo francese a uscire dalla newco in qualche modo, anche se dubito stra-enormemente lo farebbero, anche perchè andrebbe comunque liquidata (e non perchè non ha quote, la moral suasion del governo e sindacati francesi sarebbe inferiore...).

Il governo Frances uscirà certamente, e un suo obbiettivo...

[HF integrale]

Per me Renault vale più che altro per la quota del 43% di  Nissan e per le sinergie.

Come marchio è debole e presente praticamente in Europa, Lada è super low cost, Dacia idem.

Peugeot è un marchio forte e ha prodotti molto validi, certo dalle indiscrezioni è uscito che Peugeot non voleva rinunciare al controllo in caso di fusione....vediamo se Renault rinuncerà.

I manager francesi sono scontenti della valorizzazione del gruppo, sostengono che Renault fino a novembre con l'arresto di Ghosn valeva 70€... vedremo che ne uscirà fuori.

Certo Mike Manley che vende 3,5 milioni di Euro di azioni FCA il giorno dopo che viene annunciata la fusione, fa veramente una figura barbina, anche se formalmente ineccepibile, puzza molto di insider trading.

[4200blu]

4 minuti fa, HF integrale scrive:

Certo Mike Manley che vende 3,5 milioni di Euro di azioni FCA il giorno dopo che viene annunciata la fusione, fa veramente una figura barbina, anche se formalmente ineccepibile, puzza molto di insider trading.

 

Sopratutto sembra che lui non crede ad una futura con quotazione delle azioni piu alta. 

[kla6630]

3 ore fa, 4200blu scrive:

 

Sopratutto sembra che lui non crede ad una futura con quotazione delle azioni piu alta. 

Potrebbe anche darsi che l'abbia fatto come mossa politica, ovvero per far vedere ai francesi di non aver interessi personali nella fusione, oppure potrebbero essere i francesi stessi ad averglielo chiesto in cambio di qualcos'altro,  magari una posizione importante nella nuova società. Alla fine le nostre sono tutte illazioni.. 

Modificato 1 Giugno 2019 da kla6630