La crisi dell’approvvigionamento delle materie prime

[v13]

Visto che se ne è parlato in vari topic, qualcuno potrebbe postare qui qualche fonte affidabile sul problema generale dell'approvvigionamento o produzione di chip?

Non riguarda solo la filiera dell'auto e per quello non ero sicuro di aprire qui il topic.

Grazie!

[FoggyLC]

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/mar/21/global-shortage-in-computer-chips-reaches-crisis-point

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/apr/28/mini-will-pause-oxford-production-line-global-computer-chip-shortage

In sostanza: durante la prima fase della pandemia le fabbriche si sono fermate, ma quello è il meno. Il "problema" è che a partire da quel momento l'elettronica di consumo ha cominciato a correre (causa lavoro a distanza, DAD, eccetera...) e non ha ancora smesso, assorbendo la produzione di chip mondiale.
Basta vedere l'ultima trimestrale di Apple, +56% di revenues (comparando con un trimestre già da record l'anno scorso).

Oltretutto, 1 anno fa l'industria dell'auto ha anche ridotto/cancellato molti ordini, le produzioni si sono spostate ad altri clienti ed adesso i produttori di chip non hanno necessità (o interesse) a tornare a servire l'automotive... sicuramente si stanno attrezzando per aumentare la produzione ma non è un qualcosa che fai in 6 mesi/1 anno. Il tutto con l'industria dell'auto che lavora con pochissime scorte e all'insegna del "just in time"...

[aboutdas]

Alle problematiche già citate si aggiungono i problemi di dazi USA/CHN che se non erro complicano la situazione. Cerco qualche fonte.

[v13]

è per caso legato anche alle materie prime necessarie? Da dove vengono?

[ISO-8707]

46 minuti fa, v13 scrive:

è per caso legato anche alle materie prime necessarie? Da dove vengono?

 

Decisamente no, il silicio è il secondo elemento per abbondanza nella crosta terrestre.

😀

 

Il problema è l'aumento della produzione: TSMC & Co prima della pandemia lavoravano al 90% della capacità, il 10% era riservato per manutenzioni e ridondanza, ora lavorano intorno al 100%

 

Per mettere in piedi uno stabilimento ci vogliono 2 anni dalla "posa della prima pietra" al primo "wafer" di qualità accettabile.

 

 

I produttori di semiconduttori, stando alle recenti dichiarazioni agli investitori, si aspettano che questa situazione si protrarrà fino all'anno prossimo, guarda caso a 2 anni da quando hanno iniziato a lavorare sull'aumento della produzione.

Modificato 2 Maggio 2021 da ISO-8707

[shadow_line]

so anche che c'é un problema di spedizioni via nave, in molti porti le operazioni di carico-scarico e dogana sono molto rallentate per via del covid

 

ci sono foto in Us di navi mercantili alla fonda davanti ai porti in attesa di scaricare, questo rallenta tutta la catena logistica e di trasporto

[4200blu]

Intel CEO says chip shortage will persist for 'couple of years'

Company reworking factories to increase production, new CEO Pat Gelsinger says

 

The global semiconductor shortage roiling a wide range of industries likely will not be resolved for a few more years, according to Intel's new CEO Pat Gelsinger.

The company is reworking some of its factories to increase production and address the chip shortage in the auto industry, he said in an interview with CBS News. It may take at least several months for the strain on supply to even begin easing, he added.

"We have a couple of years until we catch up to this surging demand across every aspect of the business," Gelsinger said.

Demand for semiconductors was boosted in 2020 as consumers scooped up home gadgets during the pandemic. But meeting that increase has been hard, thanks to shuttered plants, among other factors. Companies worldwide say they expect supply-chain constraints due to logistics backlogs and the chip shortage to continue for much of 2021.

The global crunch has catapulted semiconductor firms into the limelight and to the top of political agendas. The Biden administration last month told companies vying with each other for semiconductors that he has bipartisan support for government funding to address the shortages.

Gelsinger said U.S. dominance in the industry had dwindled so much that only 12 percent of the world’s semiconductor manufacturing is done in the country today, from 37 percent a quarter of a century ago. Intel is the only manufacturer of high-end, cutting edge chips, he told CBS.

“And anybody who looks at supply chain says, ‘That’s a problem,’” he said. “This is a big, critical industry and we want more of it on American soil: the jobs that we want in America, the control of our long-term technology future.”

He added that his company will not be “anywhere near as focused” on its share repurchase program as it’s been up to now.

It has forced the entire auto industry to cut output, with Ford announcing the shortage will likely reduce production by 1.1 million vehicles this year. Jaguar Land Rover Automotive, Volvo Group and Mitsubishi Motors recently joined the growing list of manufacturers idling factories. Apple warned supply constraints are crimping sales of iPads and Macs.

Meanwhile, Mark Liu, chairman of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, told CBS his company, having heard about shortages at the end of last year, tried to “squeeze” out as many chips as possible for car companies.

“Today, we think we are two months ahead, that we can catch up (to) the minimum requirement of our customers -- by the end of June,” he said.   

The supply shortage may only be alleviated by the end of the year or early 2022, CBS said.

"There is a time lag," Liu said. "In car chips particularly, the supply chain is long and complex."

Liu also sought to ease concerns that U.S. companies are relying on Asian suppliers, which account for 75 percent of manufacturing, according to CBS.

"This is not about Asia or not Asia, because a shortage will happen no matter where the production is located," he said. "Because it’s due to the COVID."

 

 

 

 

Why Apple has chips for iPhones while automakers struggle with shortages

Semiconductor supply disruption the risks of 'just-in-time' production lines

 

On the same day that Ford said it would be able to produce only half as many cars as planned due to a global chip shortage, Apple announced blowout quarterly earnings as smartphone and computer sales soared, with the chip shortage having only a small impact on its business.

The contrasting results show how major players in the electronics industry, accustomed to the long-time horizons of chip production, have mostly avoided major disruptions from the chip shortage.

Automakers and their suppliers, with "just-in-time" production lines that can more easily be spun up or changed to produce different varieties of parts, have not.

Apple said Wednesday that it would lose $3 billion to $4 billion in sales in the current quarter due to limited supplies of certain older chips.

Still, that represents just a few percent of Apple's projected sales of $68.94 billion for the fiscal third quarter, according to Refinitiv revenue estimates, compared to a massive 50 percent production hit at Ford. Daimler also warned last week that the chip shortage would likely carry over to next year.

Ford CEO Jim Farley singled out a March fire at a Renesas Electronics plant in Japan as a key factor in its chip shortfall.

But some of the problems at Ford and other automakers are the result of their own decisions. Many cut orders a year ago when the pandemic hit, and then were caught short when auto demand rebounded much more quickly and strongly than anticipated.

Farley gave a bleak outlook Wednesday, saying that even though the company was working "24/7" to address the issues, "there are more whitewater moments ahead." The problems could persist into 2022, he added.

Apple, which is famous for its supply chain management and has more buying power than any other company, has avoided problems so far in meeting surging demand in part by burning through supply buffers, CEO Tim Cook told investors on a conference call Wednesday.

Problems procuring chips made with older-generation technologies will catch up with Apple in the current quarter, Cook said, noting that other industries also use such chips.

He did not cite automakers specifically, but many of their components are based on such earlier-generation tech.

Apple expects the problems to mostly affect iPads and Macs - two product lines that have sold well as work-from-home tools during the pandemic but whose sales are a fraction of Apple's cash cow, the iPhone. Ford, by contrast, is facing production shutdowns for its most profitable product, the F-150 pickup.

The uneven impact of the chip shortage was evident in mobile phone chip supplier Qualcomm's results announced Wednesday: The company said business was booming on strong demand for smartphone processors and 5G communications chips.

Mobile phone processors are not suffering the same kind of manufacturing capacity shortage as auto chips because they are made with more advanced production technology that chipmakers have spent heavily on in recent years.

Mobile phones do, however, require some older-technology chips in addition to their advanced processors. Samsung Electronics also announced strong earnings and said it expected to see a hit to smartphone sales in the current quarter due to the chip shortage. But profits at its chip division are expected to be robust.

In cases where advanced chip production technology faces bottlenecks, semiconductor companies are finding some ways to mitigate them. Advanced Micro Devices on Tuesday raised its annual sales targets, with CEO Lisa Su saying the company saw no problems in secure the supplies needed to meet the targets.

To address a shortage in so-called "substrates" - a substance used to help put delicate silicon chips into tougher packaging so they can be placed on circuit boards inside electronic devices - she said AMD invested money into its substrate suppliers to secure dedicated capacity.

"We're a bigger part of our suppliers' businesses, and we're looking for opportunities to help our partners get the capacity that we need in place," Su told Reuters in an interview. "We started that last year, and we're going to continue."

 

(ANE)

Modificato 3 Maggio 2021 da 4200blu

[nicogiraldi]

il problema non sono solo i chip, ma anche l'acciaio, la plastica il legno soffrono di mancanza d'offerta.

 

Perchè?

 

si è rotta la supply chain, è l'effetto rimbalzo che porta a ipercomprare , iperprodurre per recuperare il tempo perso.

RIsultato si creano problemi a tutti i livelli, logisitici,economici,gestionali etc etc 

[v13]

18 minutes ago, nicogiraldi said:

il problema non sono solo i chip, ma anche l'acciaio, la plastica il legno soffrono di mancanza d'offerta.

 

Perchè?

 

si è rotta la supply chain, è l'effetto rimbalzo che porta a ipercomprare , iperprodurre per recuperare il tempo perso.

RIsultato si creano problemi a tutti i livelli, logisitici,economici,gestionali etc etc 

 

chiave interessante, non i pare di aver visto niente in proposito. hai qualche consiglio di lettura?

[nicogiraldi]

4 ore fa, v13 scrive:

 

chiave interessante, non i pare di aver visto niente in proposito. hai qualche consiglio di lettura?

ti cito un settore a caso, quello dell'acciaio.

SI veniva da anni sempre costanti sia domanda che offerta, prezzo abbastanza stabile.

 

1° lockdown 

maggio - luglio cala prezzo e ordini di tutti i player, parola d'ordine essere leggeri e abbassare magazzino bisogna fare bilanci "accettabili" a fine anno, pochissimi ordini alle accieierie "tanto trovo sempre tutto , al massimo lo pagherò un 5% in più amen...", i miei clienti sono alla finestra i dealer non comprano vendono le macchine a piazzale.

settembre - aumenti piccoli 10% , amen ma ordino qualcosina,  lavoro strisciante.

novembre - sai che i miei clienti son ripartiti, guarda sto vendendo come prima del lockdown, farò un ordine anche se i prezzi sono già aumentati del 30% , ma devo consegnare prima di fine anno, ma non compro per primo semestre il prezzo è caro

gennaio - febbraio : ho bisogno di materiale ho ordini in buon numero, pago quello che c'è da pagare amen almeno produco nel primo Quarter ma compro corto il materiale è aumentato del 70%

marzo-aprile : i clienti hanno capito che c'è mercato e i vari dealer piazzano ordini per rialzare loro stock pronta consegna nasando che le consegne si stanno dilatando, panico nessuno mi dà garanzie su consegne materiale , invento ordini su ordini pur di avere qualcosa , sapendo che su 3 cose ordinate me ne arriverà 1, partono gli ordini con prezzo in bianco "basta che mi dai materiale" - aumento del 110%

maggio-giugno vedremo.